The 2026 Office Market Outlook: Navigating the New Normal
The office sector has become commercial real estate's most polarizing asset class. Depending on whom you ask, it is either facing an existential crisis or presenting the buying opportunity of a generation. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle.
This is the first installment in our four-part series examining the state of the office market as we head into 2026. Over the coming weeks, we will explore how technological shifts, demographic changes, and capital market dynamics are reshaping this $3 trillion sector. We'll examine which markets are thriving and which are struggling, what tenants actually want from their workspace, and where the smart money is placing its bets.
To start, we examine the question: is office demand stabilizing or continuing to decline? Understanding its evolution is critical for anyone with capital at risk or careers tied to commercial real estate. Let's begin with the data.
Part I: U.S. Office Market Q4 2025: Vacancy, Leasing and Absorption
Three years after the initial return-to-office push, the market is finally finding its footing, though the new equilibrium differs dramatically from 2019. National office vacancy stands at approximately 18.9% as of Q2-2025, higher than initial forecasts due to softer demand, slower job growth, and increased economic uncertainty.
Yet, beneath this headline figure lies a more nuanced reality. Leasing activity surged in Q1 2025 to 57 million square feet, the strongest quarter since the pandemic began. Capitalizing on this momentum, net absorption remains firmly positive, with 24.9 million square feet projected over Q2-Q4 2025 and continued growth anticipated in 2026, albeit at a slower clip.
Despite these encouraging signs, the risk of recession remains on the horizon, which presents challenges. If a recession does occur, it's anticipated to have only a mild impact to the economy. More concerning for landlords is the structural shift in how companies use office space—even those mandating return-to-office are doing so with smaller footprints and more flexible configurations than before the pandemic.
Flight to Quality: Class A vs. B/C in Practice
The defining characteristic of today's office market is radical bifurcation. The gap between best-in-class assets and commodity space has never been wider, creating a two-tiered market with vastly different investment profiles. Office space has evolved from a utility—simply somewhere employees work—to a strategic tool for talent attraction, retention, and culture building.
In the first half of 2025, over 80% of large leasing transactions (defined as 20,000+ SF) involved companies relocating into higher-quality spaces rather than renewing existing leases, underscoring a widespread “flight to quality.” For example, Midtown Manhattan led the nation with over 5.4 million SF of positive net absorption for Class A office space in Q3 2025, with several large lease deals with tech, financial, and legal firms signing for premium spaces featuring advanced amenities, wellness, and ESG certifications.
Meanwhile, Class B (older buildings in good condition) and C (less desirable buildings or locations) properties face elevated vacancies, minimal rent growth, and continued tenant exodus as occupiers upgraded to better space. In many markets, the vacancy gap between Class A and Class B/C properties has widened to 15 percentage points or more, a spread unprecedented in recent history.
The COVID-era question of "do we need an office?" has been largely answered in the affirmative by corporate America, but it's been replaced by "what kind of office do we need?" Buildings with robust amenities, superior air quality systems, collaborative workspaces, and access to transit and urban amenities are commanding premiums, while those lacking these features face an uncertain future.
This bifurcation creates distinct investment strategies depending on where a property sits in the quality spectrum—a dynamic we'll explore further as this series progresses.
Office Market Overview Q3 2025
Rate per SF Comparison
For Lease Days on Market
Price per SF
Sold Days on Market
Data Sourced From Crexi Intelligence
“I think the demise of the office has been slightly overstated and is not in a death spiral. I like to think of it more as an evolution that began before the pandemic in 2020 and was certainly accelerated and thrust into the spotlight since.” - Adam Siegel, VP of Product Growth, Crexi
Office-Using Jobs: What the Hiring Data Signals
Office demand ultimately derives from employment in office-using sectors, making job growth trends a critical leading indicator. The news here is mixed and warrants close attention.
In September 2025, the BLS estimated that the U.S. economy added approximately 50,000 total non-farm jobs, up from just 22,000 in August, but still well below the robust hiring levels seen in previous years. Unemployment also edged up to 4.3%, the highest rate in four years, though not a crisis-level figure.
While we lack an October 2025 jobs report due to the ongoing Federal government shutdown, slower job growth projected in H2 2025 contributed to softer-than-expected demand. Employment in professional and business services, financial activities, and information sectors remains above pre-COVID levels in most markets, but the pace of growth has decelerated.
The employment trajectory heading into 2026 will largely determine whether the office market's recovery continues or stalls. Investors should monitor employment trends in their target markets as the leading indicator of space demand.
AI and Office Space: Headcount, Utilization, Planning
Rapid AI adoption in business sectors also carries complex and even contradictory implications for office space.
AI is already displacing routine office roles. Roles like data entry, customer service, and back-office analysis are anticipated to be the most affected, with an estimated 92 million jobs projected to be displaced by 2030, according to a 2025 World Economic Forum report. The unemployment rate for college-educated workers reached 5.8% in 2025—notably above historical norms—with AI identified as a contributing factor.
However, AI is simultaneously creating new roles and driving productivity gains. The same report cited above projects 78 million net new positions globally by 2030 from AI transformation, with categories like prompt engineering and AI ethics already showing green shoots.
For office CRE, this creates competing dynamics: Companies successfully implementing AI may reduce headcount in routine roles while maintaining or expanding space for higher-value strategic work and AI-specialized teams. More productive businesses with leaner workforces might initially reduce square footage, but accelerated growth from AI-driven efficiency could drive subsequent expansion. Meanwhile, AI-native companies and firms building AI capabilities will create entirely new office demand, particularly in tech hubs.
The net effect remains uncertain, but the trajectory suggests office employment in 2026-2027 will increasingly decouple from traditional headcount metrics.
Part II: Return to Office: Attendance vs. Actual Use
In Part 1, we examined where the office market stands today: current vacancy and absorption trends, the accelerating flight to quality, and the return-to-office reality shaping tenant behavior as we head into 2026. But supply-side analysis only tells half the story. To understand where the market is headed, we need to examine the demand drivers: who's leasing space, how much they need, and what's influencing their decisions.
This second installment shifts focus to a key factor in the office narrative: a massive wave of lease expirations that will force space decisions on millions of square feet of between 2026 and 2028. Plus, we take a closer look at some of Crexi’s top office markets to unlock a more nuanced and location-specific picture of the sector.
2026–2028 Lease Rollover: Renew, Relocate, Right-Size
A wave of lease expirations between 2026 and 2028 represents the most significant near-term catalyst for office market repricing. Millions of square feet signed during the 2017-2019 boom are reaching maturity, forcing companies to make space decisions in a radically different work environment than when they originally committed. Today, the return-to-office workforce has split:
- 22% work remotely at least part-time
- 55% follow hybrid schedules
- 27-30% are fully back in the office
This disconnect creates the biggest repricing event in office history.
In 2025, employers made a decisive shift toward return-to-office enforcement, with 87% of companies either implementing return-to-office mandates or planning to by the end of the year. The most common configuration is three in-office days per week, typically Tuesday through Thursday, with Mondays and Fridays reserved for remote work.
Here's where things get interesting. Companies are bringing workers back but being much more strategic about space. Paradoxically, more occupiers are maintaining or expanding their office footprints as employer attendance mandates increase, but they're doing so strategically - we’re observing a great office rightsizing.
Companies are prioritizing quality over quantity, investing in fewer, better offices by consolidating from multiple dated locations into single trophy buildings, or upgrading from Class B to Class A space. Where they can’t or don’t want to expand, organizations are using desk sharing and hoteling to operate with 30% to 40% less square footage than in 2019, even with similar headcounts. When these less desirable leases expire, most tenants won't renew at their current location.
Consider a typical scenario playing out across major markets: A professional services firm signed a lease in 2018 for 50,000 square feet of Class B space at $35 per square foot. The lease expires in 2026.
Today, the firm needs approximately 30,000 square feet given its hybrid three-day policy and optimized space planning. Class A space in a newer building down the street offers superior amenities at $40 per square foot. The current Class B landlord, facing the reality of market conditions, drops the renewal rate to $28 per square foot and offers six months of free rent.
The tenant still moves to the Class A building. The economics appear counterintuitive (higher rent per square foot, though lower total occupancy cost), but the decision reflects changed workplace priorities. Employees need a compelling reason to leave home for those three mandated office days. The Class A building provides that reason through amenities like fitness centers, food halls, outdoor terraces, superior air quality systems, and collaborative spaces designed for hybrid work patterns. The old Class B space, even at a discount, doesn't justify the commute.
This dynamic reinforces the bifurcation identified in Part 1. Trophy buildings in prime locations with strong amenities will capture tenants even at premium rents. Commodity space, regardless of pricing concessions, faces an increasingly difficult path to stabilization. The 2026-2028 lease expiration wave will accelerate this sorting process, with consequences that will reverberate through the market for years.
Markets to Watch in 2026: Where Office Has Leverage
Location is key, and national metrics mask dramatic performance variations across major office markets. The following table presents key metrics for the ten largest office markets as of Q3 2025:
Market Summary
| Market | Asking Price / SF | YoY % | Sold Price / SF | YoY % | Vacancy | Days on Market | Asking Rate | Effective Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | $363.00 | 13.87% | $298.08 | 56.89% | 26.00% | 239 | $35.71 | $36.00 |
| Los Angeles | $423.00 | -6.59% | $484.77 | 80.89% | 46.10% | 217 | $30.00 | $27.60 |
| Chicago | $161.58 | 13.57% | $117.23 | 2.23% | 18.80% | 274 | $19.50 | $18.00 |
| Dallas | $313.57 | -2.43% | $277.49 | 50.44% | 20.20% | 183 | $17.94 | $19.00 |
| Houston | $244.00 | 3.54% | $209.51 | 86.50% | 32.10% | 210 | $18.50 | $29.94 |
| Philadelphia | $228.72 | 8.05% | $181.14 | 9.24% | 17.20% | 272 | $20.28 | $20.50 |
| Washington DC | $279.80 | 3.43% | $245.28 | -0.62% | 24.40% | 298 | $27.60 | $25.22 |
| Miami | $393.84 | 0.00% | $382.35 | 24.85% | 31.50% | 279 | $30.00 | $34.83 |
| Atlanta | $234.08 | 13.77% | $222.73 | 30.43% | 17.50% | 203 | $24.00 | $20.25 |
| Boston | $265.25 | 29.08% | $343.79 | 131.15% | 28.60% | 213 | $22.80 | $21.50 |
Data Sourced From Crexi Intelligence
The Leaders:
- Boston emerges as the standout performer with sold prices up an astounding 131% year-over-year. Strong employment in office-intensive sectors (biotech, healthcare, higher education), limited new supply, and a transit-oriented urban form supporting commuting explain the outperformance. The tight spread between asking ($22.80) and effective rent ($21.50) indicates landlord pricing power. However, the dramatic appreciation raises questions about whether the market has moved from undervalued to fully valued. This is now a market for core investors seeking stability rather than opportunistic players seeking distressed pricing.
- New York shows stabilization with transaction prices up 57% year-over-year and effective rents ($36.00) actually exceeding asking rates ($35.71), suggesting strong demand for trophy assets. However, 26% vacancy reflects the market's bifurcation: best-in-class buildings in prime locations perform well while secondary buildings struggle.
Stabilizing Markets:
- Philadelphia and Chicago represent steady, unglamorous stability with vacancy in the 17-18% range (slightly below the national average), modest transaction price growth, and effective rents close to asking rates indicating balanced negotiations without excessive concessions. These markets offer relatively lower-risk profiles for income-focused investors but limited upside—diversified employment bases and affordable living costs support office return, but limited population growth constrains appreciation potential.
Paradox Markets:
- Los Angeles presents the most puzzling dynamics: highest asking prices ($423/SF) and strong transaction prices (up 81% YoY), yet also the highest vacancy at 46.1% with effective rents ($27.60) well below asking ($30.00). The contradiction resolves when recognizing extreme quality bifurcation—trophy assets in West LA (Santa Monica, Culver City, Century City) command premiums from tech and entertainment companies, while Downtown LA and secondary submarkets face severe challenges.
- Miami shows elevated vacancy (31.5%) but strong effective rents ($34.83)—second-highest in the dataset after New York. This reflects Miami's position as a relocation destination with aggressive new construction still being absorbed. The fundamental story of corporate relocations and population growth remains intact, but the 31.5% vacancy means near-term execution risk with extended lease-up timelines.
As the 2026-2028 lease wave approaches, market selection will matter more than ever - trophy assets in strong markets will command premiums while commodity space faces extended downtimes regardless of location.
Part III: The Current State of Office Transactions
The first two installments of this series established the framework for understanding today's office market. Part 1 examined supply-side dynamics, vacancy trends, the flight to quality, and emerging opportunities opportunities for patient capital acquiring assets at steep discounts to replacement cost. Part 2 analyzed the approaching lease expiration wave that will force millions of square feet of space decisions between 2026 and 2028.
This third installment brings these threads together by examining where capital is actually flowing and how offices are performing across building classes. We'll analyze transaction velocity trends and the widening gap between asking and effective rents, and provide market-by-market performance analysis of the nation's ten largest office markets.
The data reveals clear patterns about where opportunity lies, where risk concentrates, and how the trends identified in Parts 1 and 2 are manifesting in actual transaction and leasing activity. The office market is dividing between quality and commodity, growth markets and declining ones, buildings that solve for hybrid work and those that don't. Understanding which side of these divisions a specific assets falls on will determine investment outcomes for years to come.
Transactions and Pricing: Volume, Speed, Basis
After years of paralysis, the office transaction market is showing definitive signs of life. Office transaction speed increased 13.31% annually on Crexi, with Class B surprisingly increasing the most. While this represents a significant rebound from 2023's stagnation, it's important to contextualize: we're still operating well below 2019-2020 volumes, and the nature of deals has fundamentally shifted.
Fewer properties are trading overall, but larger deals and a focus on core, institutional-grade assets are driving higher aggregate values. Most transaction activity reflects investor selectivity and a "flight to quality" at the capital level that directly mirrors the tenant behavior explored in Part 2. Buyers seek demonstrated resilience: long-term leases to creditworthy tenants, modern systems and robust amenities, locations with strong transit access and urban amenities, and genuine rent growth potential rather than value dependent solely on occupancy recovery.
The improving transaction environment also reflects capital markets adjustment. Interest rates have finally turned a corner; yet many deals have penciled in the new normal rate environment. Banks, having learned from 2008-2009, are generally working with borrowers through loan modifications and extensions rather than forcing distressed sales—preventing the flood of motivated sellers some predicted.
However, a debt maturity wall approaches in 2026-2027, particularly for properties financed in 2016-2017 at peak valuations. This wave of refinancing requirements will test whether current pricing represents genuine stabilization or simply a lull awaiting a down cycle for commodity properties with inadequate cash flow for refinancing or repositioning.
The Class B transaction surge seen on Crexi hints at these changes and warrants particular attention, given the class's struggles in leasing markets. This apparent contradiction resolves when examining buyer profiles and pricing. The activity represents movement from the opportunistic capital discussed in Part 1, acquiring distressed or pre-distressed assets at prices 60-70% below replacement cost. These buyers are underwriting repositioning strategies, conversion potential, or simply long-term holds at basis levels that provide extraordinary downside protection.
“We’re seeing a noticeable uptick in activity across our platform. There are more investors re-engaging with the market and a readiness to transact now compared to what we’ve seen over the past year. The focus is shifting toward taking advantage of opportunity in the market rather than waiting, as buyers use data to identify deals where pricing and fundamentals have started to stabilize.” - Grant Director, Director, Data Sales
Leasing in 2026: Asking vs. Effective and Concessions
Leasing market performance varies so dramatically by building quality that referring to a single "office leasing market" obscures more than it reveals. The market has bifurcated into distinct segments with entirely different dynamics, pricing power, and tenant demand profiles.
Prime, connected, and amenity-rich buildings are most likely to see rent increases and lower vacancies, with some trophy buildings in Manhattan, Miami, and other strong markets achieving rental rates at or above pre-pandemic peaks. Per Crexi data, these Class A landlords have seen nearly a 14% YoY jump in asking rates because they're offering what tenants need: spaces compelling enough to overcome the majority of employees who prefer remote or hybrid work.
Conversely, Class B (down 10% YoY) and C (up 6% YoY) properties face minimal rent growth and often declining effective rents. These buildings are competing for a shrinking pool of price-sensitive tenants, often offering asking rents 10-20% below pre-pandemic levels. Yet even these reduced asking rents don't tell the complete story, because substantial concession packages further erode actual economic returns to landlords.
Asking rents don't tell the full story. The real measure of landlord negotiating position lies in the concession packages required to sign leases: tenant improvement allowances, free rent periods, and other economic incentives that reduce effective rent well below face rates.
The divergence by building quality is substantial. Trophy buildings in high-demand markets command significantly less generous concession packages, allowing landlords to be selective about tenants. Per Crexi data, the bifurcation by rental quality for offices is more apparent than ev er, with Class A assets experiencing nearly 20% QoQ growth in effective leasing rates, while Class B and C both saw decreases in the same period.
Landlords in markets with rising vacancy, such as Orange County and Los Angeles, have responded to competitive pressure by increasing TI packages and longer periods of free rent, keeping asking rents nominally stable while effective rents dropped below published rates.
This dynamic directly connects to the lease expiration wave discussed in Part 2. When tenants occupying Class B space face renewals, even aggressive pricing concessions often fail to retain them. They're upgrading to Class A because their business model now requires office space that competes with home offices, not just space that houses workers performing tasks. This exodus from commodity space to quality buildings will accelerate through the 2026-2028 lease expiration cycle, further entrenching the market's bifurcation.
Opportunistic Plays: Low Basis, TI Strategy, Replacement Cost
While headlines continue to emphasize office market distress, a quieter story is unfolding beneath the surface. Cash buyers are quietly acquiring Class B and C office buildings at $150 to $200 per square foot—properties that currently would cost $500 per square foot to build. This disconnect between replacement cost and market pricing has drawn the attention of high-net-worth individuals and private capital groups who see parallels to the opportunities that emerged during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Here's the thinking: Purchasing Class B office buildings in established locations at 60-70% below replacement cost creates extraordinary flexibility. With a low basis, buyers can offer generous tenant improvements, charge rents 20% below competing properties, and still generate attractive returns. An owner who paid $500 per square foot needs full occupancy at market rents to break even; an owner who paid $200 per square foot can be selective, patient, and competitive on pricing while maintaining healthy margins.
This strategy requires a long-term perspective and adequate capital reserves, but early entrants are already seeing results. According to Crexi data, Class B and C properties acquired in 2024 have seen appreciating asking prices in select markets, as cap rates begin to compress and investors gain confidence in stabilization strategies. Family offices and private investors are particularly active, viewing these acquisitions as generational holds rather than opportunistic trades.
Banks are helping, too, learning from mistakes they made in 2008. Nobody wants to own empty office buildings, so they're working with borrowers, offering extensions, workouts, and patience. Add falling interest rates to the mix, and deals are starting to happen again. Transaction velocity on Crexi jumped 13% in Q3 2025, and while institutional investors still can't touch office because of their investment committees and portfolio rules, private buyers face no such limits.
“As a respected CRE Professional once told me, the office is not overbuilt; it is under-demolished. It is very true, but that opens the door for both investors and developers to either scoop up best-in-class assets at steep discounts to where they would have traded pre-2020, or reposition/redevelop these prime locations into more viable uses, like multi-family and mixed-use. It’s similar to what the retail sector experienced with mall spaces over the past 15 years as that too has changed with the evolution of online shopping and smaller, more boutique brands replacing big box stores like Sears and JC Penny.” - Adam Siegel, VP of Product Growth
The window for these opportunities will narrow as more capital recognizes the value proposition. Brokers report increasing buyer competition for well-located assets, even those requiring repositioning. For investors with capital, expertise, and patience, the current environment represents one of the more compelling entry points in recent memory—a theme we'll examine from multiple angles throughout this series.
Part IV: Office-to-Residential: When the Numbers Work
The first three installments of this series established an understanding of today's office market. Part 1 examined supply-side dynamics and demand drivers, employment trends, and AI's impact on office requirements. Part 2 explored the upcoming lease expiration wave reshaping tenant behavior and dove deep into specific regional metrics. Part 3 analyzed transaction and leasing performance across building classes and revealed key investment opportunities that await patient capital.
This final installment addresses a phenomenon that's reshaping supply fundamentals in unexpected ways: the accelerating wave of office-to-residential conversions. With conversion activity now exceeding new office construction, understanding what this trend signals about building viability, location desirability, and market dynamics has become essential for investment decision-making.
We end with synthesized insights from across this series into a practical investment framework, explore the critical factors investors should monitor through 2026, and provide strategic guidance for different investor types and capital strategies navigating the divided office market.
Office-to-residential conversions have surged to record levels, offering a potential exit strategy for struggling assets. Per reports, the national pipeline reached more than 70,700 units in 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—representing approximately 81 million square feet of office space across 44 markets. This volume now exceeds new office construction starts for the first time, fundamentally altering the supply equation.
Two powerful market forces are at play here. On one side: elevated office vacancy at 19.4% nationally as of mid-2025, creating substantial inventory of underperforming buildings with limited prospects for stabilization as office assets. On the other: strong housing demand in urban cores where housing supply remains severely constrained, creating demand for residential units in locations traditionally dominated by office use.
Economically, conversion feasibility has improved as office values have declined. Buildings worth $400-500 per square foot in 2019 can now be acquired for $150-200 per square foot. With conversion costs typically ranging $200-300 per square foot, developers achieve an all-in basis of $350-500 per square foot, sometimes below the cost of ground-up residential construction in the same locations, even before accounting for municipal incentives that further improve economics.
Projections estimate the annual office-to-multifamily conversion rate will increase to around 0.6% of office stock in 2026, translating to roughly 20,000 new residential units per year. This growth reflects acquisition cost advantages for developers as office values decline.
While this represents meaningful activity in absolute terms—each converted building removes supply from struggling office markets—the scale provides important context. At a 0.6% annual conversion rate, meaningfully reducing office vacancy through conversions alone would take decades. Conversions function as a pressure relief valve rather than a comprehensive solution to office oversupply.
Policy and Incentives: Cities Moving Fastest
Municipal governments have moved from passive observers to active facilitators of conversion activity, recognizing that downtown office vacancy threatens fiscal health, urban vitality, and city competitiveness. Among those greasing the wheels:
- New York City offers tax exemptions up to 90% for converted buildings with at least 25% affordable apartments.
- Washington, D.C.'s Housing in Downtown program provides 20-year tax abatements for commercial-to-residential conversions
- Minneapolis removed public hearing requirements for conversions
- San Francisco updated building codes and created a dedicated financing district to facilitate conversions.
These policy interventions reflect government awareness that converting struggling office buildings to housing serves multiple objectives. Reducing office vacancy will ease depressed valuations and tax revenues, while adding housing supply in locations with severe shortages, maintaining downtown vitality by increasing residential population and avoiding the downsides of vacant or underutilized buildings in urban cores.
Whether this tightening materializes significantly impacts space demand. Successful enforcement could reverse square footage reductions from 2023-2025. However, if retention challenges force rollbacks, demand growth will disappoint. Watch lease transaction data closely—not just volume and pricing, but square footage per employee metrics revealing actual utilization patterns.
What Converts: Floorplates, Light, Systems, Age
However, conversion viability is highly selective. Buildings must have appropriate floor plates, ceiling heights, and access to natural light. Mid-age office properties in residential-constrained urban cores with favorable zoning represent the best candidates.
Location and neighborhood characteristics will also determine whether converted units will find market demand. Buildings must be situated in locations that support residential living, with access to transit, retail, grocery stores, restaurants, parks, and urban services and amenities. Downtown office districts that become ghost towns outside of business hours don't necessarily support successful residential conversions regardless of building characteristics. Conversions work best in mixed-use urban neighborhoods with established residential populations and supporting retail and services.
These requirements create clear segmentation of which buildings are conversion candidates. Mid-rise buildings constructed between the 1920s and 1960s with floor plates of 10,000-15,000 square feet, generous ceiling heights, and locations in established urban neighborhoods represent the sweet spot. Modern office towers with 30,000+ square foot floor plates are generally not viable for conversion regardless of pricing or incentives. Suburban office parks lack the neighborhood characteristics to support residential demand. Class B office buildings in urban cores represent the primary conversion candidate pool, which helps explain why Class B properties in particular are seeing faster transaction cycles.
For investors, conversions offer a repositioning path for Class B assets in strong residential markets, but require sophisticated execution and patient capital. As office leasing demand strengthens in select markets, the conversion opportunity window may narrow for all but the most distressed assets.
Investor Watchlist: 2026 Office CRE
As we move into 2026, four interconnected trends will shape office market performance and determine investment outcomes. These factors interact and reinforce each other in ways that will amplify the market bifurcation already underway.
RTO Policy: What’s Sticking, What Isn’t
The trajectory of corporate return-to-office mandates will substantially impact demand through 2026. While 87% of companies had implemented or planned mandates by end of 2025, execution and durability remain uncertain. Survey data reveals persistent tension: 76% of organizations acknowledge that flexible work improves employee retention, yet 33% plan to increase required office days in 2026.
This bifurcation reflects structural adaptation to permanent changes in how work happens and what office space must provide to justify its existence in competition with home offices.
Jobs in Office-Using Sectors: Scenarios for 2026
Employment trends in office-intensive industries remain the fundamental demand driver. The slower job growth in H2 2025—50,000 jobs in September following just 22,000 in August, with unemployment at 4.3%—raises concerns about 2026’s trajectory.
If employment in office-using sectors continues growing modestly, net absorption can remain positive. However, if growth stalls or turns negative, demand will soften further. Investors should track employment data monthly in target markets. Changes in employment growth rates typically lead changes in net absorption by 6-9 months, making employment a leading indicator.
Rollover Risk: Exposure by Market and Asset Class
Approximately 15-20% of total office inventory will see leases expire between 2026-2028, creating the most significant near-term catalyst for repricing. Companies will crystallize structural changes in space utilization into binding commitments.
The flight to quality will accelerate. Trophy buildings positioned to capture relocating tenants should see strong leasing activity with pricing power. Commodity buildings losing tenants face extended vacancy and will struggle without substantial concessions .Buildings with 40-50% rollover in this window face near-term uncertainty that should be reflected in pricing.
Capital and Debt: Refinancing, Extensions, Distress
Properties financed during 2015-2017 with 10-year terms reach maturity when values have declined 30-50% and cash flows are down. Properties that can't refinance face loan extensions, workouts, foreclosure, or distressed sales—each creating acquisition opportunities for well-capitalized buyers.
The debt maturity wave will accelerate distressed opportunities, particularly for commodity buildings. However, investors must distinguish between properties distressed due to temporary financing challenges versus those structurally obsolete. A well-located building with debt problems may offer excellent value; a poorly-located building remains challenged regardless of price.
Investor Watchlist: 2026 Office CRE
For every investor type, the path forward requires discipline, market selection, relentless focus on building quality, conservative underwriting, and adequate capital reserves. The office market of 2026 will reward investors who recognize these principles and execute.
The question isn't whether office has a future; the answer is definitively yes. The question is which offices have a future. Buildings that support hybrid work, provide experiences superior to home offices, and occupy locations where people want to commute will thrive. Everything else faces an increasingly narrow path to viability.
Position wisely. Execute with discipline. The office market's future belongs to those who understand its present.
Get the latest data-driven insights on office in 2026 with Crexi Intelligence.