The Central Valley Commercial Real Estate Market

Shanti Ryle

July 18, 2025

The I-5 Freeway driving through crops in CA's Central Valley

California’s Central Valley is a major hub for commercial real estate activity in the region, promising an exceptional combination of affordability, accessibility, and accessibility. Anchored by cities like Fresno and Bakersfield, the region has become a key player in West Coast distribution and industrial real estate, with demand expanding into retail and multifamily sectors as the population grows. Its central location, proximity to major highways, and large labor pool make it especially appealing to companies seeking scalable space outside of higher-priced coastal markets.

Crexi supports this momentum by helping brokers, investors, and owners discover and close deals more efficiently. Since launching in 2016, Crexi has facilitated over $1 trillion in transactions and leased 8.6 billion in square feet.

We’re proud to serve the Central Valley and help connect commercial real estate professionals with the insights and tools they need to move smarter and faster.

Key Takeaways

Population Growth: Bakersfield is the fastest-growing major city in California, with Kern and Fresno counties now home to nearly 2 million residents.
Affordability Advantage: Cost of living is 27% lower than Los Angeles and 37% lower than San Francisco, making the region attractive to both residents and employers.
Economic Expansion: The combined GDP of Bakersfield and Fresno has grown nearly 50% in the past decade, reaching close to $120 billion.
Industrial Hub: With direct access to I-5, Hwy 99, and major airports, the Central Valley is a key logistics and manufacturing corridor for West Coast distribution.
Investment Potential: Retail, multifamily, and office markets show resilience despite some vacancies, offering long-term opportunities for investors and developers.

A farmer's market in California's Central Valley

The State of Commercial Real Estate in the Central Valley

Stretching between two of California’s largest metro areas, the Central Valley is emerging as a powerful commercial real estate market in its own right. While agriculture and energy remain foundational to the region’s identity, new growth sectors are quickly gaining ground. Industrial development is accelerating thanks to the region’s central location, affordable land, and access to major highways and rail lines, making it a natural hub for logistics, manufacturing, and e-commerce.

Population growth continues to outpace expectations as more residents relocate from coastal metros in search of affordability, opportunity, and a higher quality of life. That demographic shift is fueling demand for everything from new housing to retail and service-oriented development, especially in Fresno’s rapidly expanding suburbs and Bakersfield’s industrial corridors. Developers are responding with a wave of projects aimed at meeting both commercial and residential demand.

Beyond economics, the Central Valley offers a lifestyle that blends wide-open landscapes, a growing small business scene, and family-friendly communities. Whether it’s fresh produce at local markets, revitalized downtowns, or a growing inventory of modern industrial facilities, the region presents a well-rounded case for long-term investment. For brokers, investors, and developers, the Central Valley remains one of California’s most promising markets, balancing resilience, opportunity, and room to grow.

Central Valley Regional Breakdown

The Central Valley continues to attract new residents with its blend of affordability, opportunity, and growing economic diversity. Kern and Fresno counties now support a population of nearly 2 million, and Bakersfield is leading California’s major cities in population growth. With a younger median age, a growing economy, and a cost of living significantly lower than Los Angeles and San Francisco, the region has plenty to offer both residents and investors.

The two largest counties in the Central Valley region (Kern County and Fresno County) are home to about 2 million residents.
Among California’s 10 largest cities, Bakersfield ranked as number one for the fastest rate of population growth.
The region’s median age is 33.3, which is about 90% of the figure for the United States.
In Fresno County, the average per capita income is $31,479 and the median household income is $71,689. In Kern County, the average per capita income is $29,201 and the median household income is $68,893.
Cost of living is about 27% lower than Los Angeles and 37% lower than San Francisco, according to the cost of living calculator from NerdWallet.

Central Valley Job Market

The Central Valley’s job market is growing fast - and it’s not just agriculture driving the momentum. Over the past decade, the region’s economy has expanded by nearly 50%, thanks to booming industries like healthcare, advanced manufacturing, energy, and logistics.

Major employers like Amazon, Chevron, and Frito-Lay are creating jobs across a wide range of skill levels, while local universities help fuel a strong talent pipeline. New developments in Bakersfield and Fresno, along with ongoing zoning updates, are shaping the future of how and where people live and work.

With affordable living and easy access to major metros, it’s easy to see why the Central Valley is becoming a place where more people are choosing to build their careers.

The combined GDP of Bakersfield and Fresno is nearly $120 billion, growing by about 48% over the past decade alone.
The average unemployment rate is 8.25% (as of July 2025), with the manufacturing, education and health services, and government sectors reporting the strongest growth.
Major industries in the Central Valley include agriculture, advanced manufacturing, aerospace and defense, energy and natural resources, healthcare services, and transportation and logistics.
Major employers in Kern County and Fresno County include Amazon, Adventist Health Bakersfield, California Correctional Institution, Cargill, Chevron Corporation, Edwards Air Force Base, Frito-Lay, Foster Farms, NASA/Armstrong Flight Research, and Sun Pacific.
Major zoning decisions are being made in both Bakersfield and Fresno, including an ordinance to revise oil and gas rezoning plans and considerations for fast-tracking residential rezoning plans.
City Lights, a long-awaited redevelopment project in Bakersfield replacing the demolished East Hills Mall, is tentatively expected to open in 2026.
In Fresno, the Fancher Creek Town Center development has added major businesses to its plans, including what is slated to be the largest Target in the central San Joaquin Valley.
The Central Valley transportation network includes major interstates such as I-5 and Highway 99, the nearby inland Port of Stockton, and key airports like Fresno Yosemite International (FAT) and Meadows Field Airport (BFL) in Bakersfield.
Major metros within a 1-day drive of the Central Valley include Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Silicon Valley, Las Vegas, Reno, and Phoenix.
The Central Valley is home to prominent educational institutions, including California State University, Fresno (Fresno State), California State University, Bakersfield (CSUB), and the University of California, Merced.

A tractor pulls farm workers through a crop in one of CA's Central Valley markets

Central Valley Industrial Market

Bakersfield

Bakersfield’s industrial market is navigating a period of transition, balancing steady demand with a growing supply pipeline. Long anchored by agriculture and energy, the region is now seeing e-commerce and logistics play a bigger role, even as rising vacancies and slower absorption hint at a market finding its next footing. With over 1.9 million square feet under construction, developers remain optimistic about what’s ahead.

Market overview (Colliers Q4 2024 Bakersfield Industrial Report)

Inventory: 65,800,000 SF
Vacancy rate: 7.2%
Deliveries: 1,900,000 SF (last 12 months)
Net absorption: -522,000 SF (12-month)
Under construction: 1,900,000 SF
Properties under construction/recently delivered: 5401 Express Ave (1.088 million SF), Tejon Ranch (711,000 SF), Bak. Central Logistics Park (300,000 SF)

Crexi Insights

These are the most recent Bakersfield industrial lease and sales trends from Crexi Insights (as of July 2025):

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $13 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 5,183
Days on market: 172
Total listings on Crexi: 134 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $1.2 million
Price/SqFt: $125
Asking cap rate: 4.6%
Days on market: 168
Total listings on Crexi: 50

Sales Comps (past 12 months)

Median sold price: $704,800
Sold price/SqFt: $142
Total sales volume: $64.7 million
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 3,600
Total SqFt sold: 352,500
Days on market (median): 90

Fresno

The industrial market in Fresno is showing signs of a slowdown, with tenant demand softening and no new projects currently under construction. Despite rising vacancies and negative absorption, the region remains a strategic distribution point between Northern and Southern California. Recent lease activity from major players shows that while momentum has cooled, key occupiers are still committed to the market.

Market overview (CBRE South Central Valley/Fresno Q2 2025)

Inventory: 111,246,185 SF
Vacancy rate: 10.1%
Net absorption: -949,661 SF (YTD)
Under construction: 0 SF
Key leases: The Hillman Group (215,844 SF), PACTIV (135,007 SF)

Crexi Insights

These are the most recent Fresno industrial lease and sales trends from Crexi Insights (as of July 2025):

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $10 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 4,718
Days on market: 187
Total listings on Crexi: 144 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $1.5 million
Price/SqFt: $108
Asking cap rate: 5.3%
Days on market: 172
Total listings on Crexi: 52

Sales Comps (past 12 months)

Median sold price: $750,000
Sold price/SqFt: $98
Total sales volume: $50.6 million
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 4,955
Total SqFt sold: 661,100
Days on market (median): 79

Find Fresno industrial space for rent and Bakersfield industrial space for rent.

A large mural with the word Fresno on it

Central Valley Office Market

Bakersfield

Vacancy is on the rise in Bakersfield as a handful of large move-outs weigh on overall absorption, but the market hasn’t lost its footing. Most leasing activity is still driven by local users, and landlords are holding firm on pricing, especially for high-quality space. With new development minimal, Bakersfield’s office market continues to be fueled by measured, tenant-focused growth.

Market overview (Colliers Q4 2024 Bakersfield Office Report)

Inventory: 16,260,000 SF
Vacancy rate: 11.8%
Absorption: -223,000 SF (last 12 months)
Under construction: 50,000 SF
Delivered: 32,900 SF
Key leases by location: CA Corporate Center (45,400 SF), 9801 Camino Media (42,635 SF), 3850 Pegasus Dr (Build-to-Suit)

Crexi Insights

For the latest updates on the office market in Bakersfields, turn to Crexi Insights. Here is the detailed information on recent sales and leasing trends as of July 2025.

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $19 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 2,178 SF
Days on market: 287
Total listings on Crexi: 251 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $975,000
Price/SqFt: $159
Asking cap rate: 7%
Days on market: 238
Total listings on Crexi: 45

Sales Comps (last 12 months)

Median sold price: $542,500
Sold price/SqFt: $198
Total sales volume: $49.7 million
Sold cap rate: 7.2%
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 2,538 SF
Days on market (median): 134

Fresno

The Fresno office market remains one of the most stable in the Central Valley, with strong demand from government agencies, healthcare providers, and regional employers helping to steady vacancy rates. While net absorption has turned negative over the past year, targeted development, especially in the medical office sector, continues to move forward. Modest leasing activity and limited speculative construction reflect a market adapting to shifting workplace trends without overextending supply.

Market overview (Colliers H1 2025 Fresno Market Snapshot)

Inventory: 29,300,000 SF
Vacancy rate: 8.5%
Net absorption: -246,000 SF (last 12 months)
Deliveries: 62,100 SF (12-month)
Under construction: 168,000 SF

Market overview (Colliers H1 2025 Fresno Market Snapshot)

Here is the detailed information on recent sales and leasing trends for office space in Fresno from Crexi Insights, as of July 2025.

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $18 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 1,900 SF
Days on market: 274
Total listings on Crexi: 572 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $1.1 million
Price/SqFt: $191
Asking cap rate: 6.6%
Days on market: 263
Total listings on Crexi: 74

Sales Comps (last 12 months)

Median sold price: $593,500
Sold price/SqFt: $160
Total sales volume: $47.5 million
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 4,694 SF
Days on market (median): 358

Find Bakersfield office space for rent and Fresno office space for rent.

Central Valley Retail Market

Bakersfield

Bakersfield’s retail market is experiencing some turbulence, with rising vacancies and negative net absorption largely driven by anchor tenant moveouts. Still, overall availability remains relatively low and retail rents continue to climb, thanks to limited new construction and steady demand from discount and service-based tenants. While growth may slow in the short term, the market is expected to stabilize as new projects wrap and leasing activity levels out.

Market overview (Colliers Q4 2024 Bakersfield Retail Market Report)

Inventory: 35,600,000 SF
Vacancy rate: 4.9%
Net absorption: -330,000 SF (12-month)
Under construction: 161,000 SF
Key projects recently completed: 9847 Panama Ln. (93,900 SF; 3-star retail), 4625 Buena Vista Rd. (10,600 SF; 3-star retail); 3943 Rosedale Hwy (8,130 SF; 2-star retail)

Crexi Insights

Bakersfield retail lease and sales trends from Crexi Insights (as of July 2025):

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $17 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 3,596 SF
Days on market: 281
Total listings on Crexi: 314 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $1.4 million
Price/SqFt: $166
Asking cap rate: 6.1%
Days on market: 170
Total listings on Crexi: 64

Sales Comps (past 12 months)

Median sold price: $557,500
Sold price/SqFt: $212
Total sales volume: $114.5 million
Sold cap rate: 6.9%
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 3,666 SF
Days on market (median): 151

Fresno

Retail activity in Fresno is staying steady, with vacancy rates leveling off and modest rent growth pointing to ongoing demand. While leasing has slowed slightly, developers are moving forward with several build-to-suit projects, reflecting confidence in the market’s long-term fundamentals. With more than 340,000 square feet under construction and pricing remaining competitive, Fresno’s retail sector continues to offer stable opportunities.

Market overview (Colliers H1 2025 Retail Market Snapshot)

Inventory: 49,700,000 SF
Vacancy rate: 5.6%
Deliveries (12-month): 20,000 SF
Under construction: 343,000 SF
Key projects under construction: SWC Shaw & Leonard (150,000 SF; strip center); SEC Shepherd & Willow (29,300 SF; freestanding), 566-584 NW Nees (18,000 SF; freestanding)

Crexi Insights

Fresno retail lease and sales trends from Crexi Insights (as of July 2025):

For Lease (active)

Asking rate/SqFt (median): $13 per year
Median SqFt/listing: 2,522 SF
Days on market: 301
Total listings on Crexi: 322 spaces

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $997,000
Price/SqFt: $152
Asking cap rate: 66.3%
Days on market: 187
Total listings on Crexi: 69

Sales Comps (past 12 months)

Median sold price: $800,000
Sold price/SqFt: $180
Total sales volume: $123.8 million
Sold cap rate: 6.8%
Median SqFt sold/transaction: 4,179 SF
Days on market (median): 169

Find Fresno retail space for rent and Bakersfield retail space for rent.

Telecom wires and towers dot a large path in CA's central valley

Central Valley Multifamily Market

Bakersfield

Bakersfield’s multifamily market continues to offer value for investors, thanks to its affordability and stable demand. While vacancy has edged up slightly, average rents remain well below national levels, helping maintain strong occupancy. With limited new construction and steady transaction activity, the market presents reliable opportunities for long-term growth.

Market overview (Lee & Associates Q4 2024)

Total housing units: 309,632
Multi-unit inventory: 26,113 units
Vacancy rate: 5.2%
Average asking rent: $1,376
Under construction: 318 units
Key sale transactions by property: 2601 S. Real Rd. (118 units), 4401 Columbus St. (15 units), 2410 S. M St. (20 units)

Crexi Insights

Here are the most recent Bakersfield multifamily Insights from Crexi (as of July 2025):

For Sale (active)

Median asking price: $999,000
Price/SqFt: $187
Price/Unit: $142,000
Asking cap rate: 6.2%
Days on market: 140
Total listings on Crexi: 17

Sales Comps (past 12 months)

Median sold price: $576,200
Sold price/SqFt: $135
Sold price/unit: $142,400
Total sales volume: $247.3 million
Sold cap rate: 8.1%
Total SqFt sold: 696,500
Days on market (median): 317

Fresno

The Fresno multifamily market is holding its ground, supported by low vacancy and modest rent growth that continue to attract investor attention. With just 96 units under construction, recent deliveries have been met with consistent demand, helping to balance supply. The region’s relative affordability and reliable absorption trends make Fresno an appealing option for long-term multifamily investment.

Market overview (Colliers Q2 2025 Multifamily Market Snapshot)

Total housing units: 399,693
Multi-unit inventory: 56,571 units
Vacancy rate: 4.5%
Average asking rent: $1,458
Deliveries (past 12 months): 523 units
Net absorption (12-month): 741 units
Under construction: 96 units
Key sale transactions by property: 2445 E. Copper Ave. (64 units), 322 W. 6th St. (6 units), 628 S. Backer Ave. (quadruplex)