Crexi National Commercial Real Estate Report: April 2026

Key Takeaways

• Retail vacancy held at a historically tight 5.3% in April, with effective lease rates outpacing asking rates, confirming that competitive conditions favor landlords and that necessity-anchored formats continue to attract institutional capital at widening spreads above the cost of debt.
• Office posted the largest year-over-year vacancy improvement of any asset class tracked, falling 750 basis points from April 2025, though a 100-basis-point sequential uptick in April underscores that the office recovery remains uneven and concentrated in prime, well-located product.
• Industrial pricing rose 7.2% year over year as cap rates stabilized near 7.1%, but asking lease rates were essentially flat on an annual basis, tracking the measured, below-expectations industrial rent recovery that major 2026 outlooks anticipated for a sector still normalizing after its supply-cycle peak.
• Multifamily sale cap rates compressed 36 basis points year over year to 5.93% on completed transactions, even as asking cap rates remain 125 basis points higher, a spread that reflects ongoing buyer-seller tension, while a 190-basis-point sequential vacancy improvement signals that the demand-side recovery is accelerating heading into peak leasing season.
• A 20% decline in the CREFC 1Q 2026 Sentiment Index, driven by geopolitical shock and renewed rate uncertainty tied to the onset of the Iran war, has introduced broad caution into CRE capital markets and reinforced asset quality and location selectivity as the primary risk-mitigation strategies across all sectors.

Retail Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing

Retail sale prices accelerated in April, with the average sale price per square foot rising to $230.45, a 4.47% gain from March's $220.60 and a 13.44% increase from the $199.48 recorded in April 2025. Asking prices climbed even faster, reaching $355.55 per square foot, up 7.34% month over month and 29.35% year over year, leaving a substantial spread between list and close that reflects optimistic seller expectations against a backdrop of historically tight fundamentals.

Cap Rates

Sale cap rates held steady at 6.59% in April, unchanged from March and 21 basis points below the 6.80% recorded in April 2025, reflecting continued retail yield compression for closed transactions. Asking cap rates edged lower to 6.34%, a 5-basis-point decline month over month and 20 basis points below a year ago, suggesting sellers are still underwriting for further compression even as the broader capital markets environment remains uncertain.

Vacancy

Retail vacancy held at 5.30% in April, unchanged from March and 150 basis points tighter than the 6.80% vacancy registered in April 2025. At this level, national retail vacancy sits at a historically low threshold, the product of years in which net demand has outpaced limited new supply and weaker inventory has been steadily absorbed or retired.

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates

The retail leasing market remained active in April, with asking lease rates reaching $19.86 per square foot, a 0.25% increase from March and 3.12% above April 2025. Effective lease rates of $20.37 per square foot,  up 0.59% month over month and 2.21% year over year, continued to outpace asking rates, a signal that tenants are consistently accepting terms above the landlord's initial ask. In a market with only 5.3% vacancy, this inversion reflects the competitive reality facing tenants. With fewer alternatives available, occupiers are absorbing higher rents and accepting fewer concessions to secure retail space.

The Big Picture

Retail has emerged as one of the most durable asset classes in the current cycle, and April's data reinforces that position. With vacancy holding near 5.3% and effective rents outpacing asking rates, the national supply-demand balance for retail remains historically favorable. This tightness is most pronounced in necessity-based formats, where institutional investors have aggressively competed for well-anchored grocery centers and net lease assets. 

Large platforms have deployed significant capital into need-based retail recently, including a $125 million investment by Getty Realty at an 8.2% yield and $388 million in closings by Essential Properties at a 7.7% cap rate. Those yields represent meaningful spreads above current debt costs, and the volume of capital chasing need-based formats signals how sharply investor preferences have bifurcated away from discretionary exposure.

The macro backdrop adds meaningful complexity to what the fundamentals alone would suggest. Consumer sentiment reached record lows in April 2026, weighed down by persistent fuel and shipping cost increases that have inflated headline retail sales figures without generating equivalent discretionary spending growth. Fed rate cuts are now expected to be delayed until late 2026, extending the pressure on rate-sensitive retail tenants and developers. Retail is nonetheless showing signs of recovery in urban cores and high-quality corridors, a characterization well supported by accelerating Crexi pricing metrics. The bifurcation between necessity-anchored open-air centers and discretionary formats is widening, and the longer consumer confidence remains suppressed, the more that distinction matters for underwriting.

Investment Implications: With vacancy at a multi-cycle low and effective rents running above asking, the market is clearly favoring landlords, but entry pricing reflects that advantage. Investors seeking retail exposure should prioritize necessity-anchored, grocery- or service-anchored centers in supply-constrained markets, where the fundamental durability is most defensible.

Secondary and tertiary markets with the same tight-vacancy profile but wider initial yields offer a more attractive risk-adjusted entry point than core-market assets already priced for perfection. Discretionary and mall-adjacent formats warrant materially more selectivity given the consumer sentiment headwinds. The same tenant quality and lease structure analysis that applies in any environment carries extra weight when the consumer spending cycle is under pressure.

Office Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing

Office sale prices stabilized in April, with the average sale price per square foot reaching $168.29, a 2.50% gain from March's $164.19 but essentially flat versus the $168.71 recorded in April 2025. This near-zero year-over-year change reflects an office market that appears to have found a price floor after a multi-year correction, rather than one entering meaningful recovery. Asking prices, by contrast, climbed to $262.92 per square foot, up 4.51% month over month and 18.30% year over year. This left a wide and persistent spread between list and close, indicating sellers are pricing for a recovery that transaction markets have not yet fully validated.

Cap Rates

Sale cap rates registered 7.17% in April, a 2-basis-point improvement from March but 19 basis points above the 6.98% recorded in April 2025. The year-over-year cap rate expansion in closed transactions reflects buyers underwriting at higher yield requirements than a year ago, consistent with an office market still working through price discovery. Asking cap rates of 7.16%, down 2 basis points month over month and 9 basis points year over year, have nearly converged with closed-deal rates, suggesting seller expectations are beginning to align with where buyers will actually transact.

Vacancy

Office vacancy registered 17.70% in April, a 100-basis-point increase from March's 16.70%, though still dramatically improved relative to the 25.20% recorded in April 2025. The 750-basis-point year-over-year improvement represents one of the most significant recoveries in occupied space of any asset class this cycle, even as the month-over-month uptick is a reminder that the path to stabilization remains uneven. At 17.7%, the Crexi national vacancy figure aligns directionally with CommercialCafe's March 2026 national office figure of 17.8%, confirming that broad office-market recovery is real but not yet complete.

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates

Office asking lease rates held at $19.14 per square foot in April, unchanged month over month and 1.52% above the $18.85 recorded in April 2025. Effective lease rates of $21.57 per square foot, up 1.89% from March's $21.17 and 4.68% above April 2025, continued to run above asking rates. This $2.43 per square foot premium reflects the ongoing bidding competition for quality office space. In well-located, amenitized buildings, tenants are consistently accepting terms above the landlord's initial ask, and those effective rents are rising at nearly three times the pace of asking rates year over year, a signal that the real leasing story in office is being written in the prime segment, not the broad average.

“The office sector has undergone a radical reset since 2020, and after a few turbulent years, we're finally seeing where things land. The flight to quality is real: well-located buildings with strong amenities are in high demand, while older, less competitive stock is being repurposed or demolished, especially in markets with strong fundamentals. 

Vacancy rates in many markets are beginning to stabilize and in some cases trend in the right direction. New demand from AI companies, financial services firms, and legal tenants is driving significant leasing activity in markets like San Francisco and New York City. Over the next few years, we expect the office market to continue adjusting toward a healthier, right-sized equilibrium." - Adam Siegel, VP of Product Growth, Crexi

The Big Picture

The most consequential metric in April's office data is the 750-basis-point year-over-year improvement in vacancy, from 25.2% to 17.7%. That progress reflects two concurrent forces: the gradual return of tenants to quality environments driven by expanding return-to-office requirements, and the ongoing removal of obsolete inventory through conversions, write-downs, and adaptive reuse. The prime office vacancy rate fell to just 12.7% in Q1 nationally, with Midtown Manhattan's prime rate reaching only 2.9%, as tenant demand concentrates in best-in-class product. Average asking rents rose 2.2% year over year in Q1 to $37.21 per square foot, the fastest pace in six years, though the gap between asking and taking rents reflects the concession environment that persists outside top-tier assets. The flight to quality continues to define the sector: tenants are consolidating into modern, well-located space while older product faces structural vacancy that neither time nor concessions can quickly resolve.

The month-over-month uptick in vacancy from 16.70% in March to 17.70% in April warrants monitoring, as it suggests the recovery is not linear. This incremental reversal is consistent with a broader decline in CRE finance sentiment, which fell 20.2% in Q1 from its 4Q 2025 high, erasing three quarters of gains as the onset of the Iran war drove sharp pullbacks in rate expectations, liquidity confidence, and the economic outlook. 

Only 7% of survey respondents expected rates to have a positive impact on CRE finance businesses in Q1, versus 69% in the prior quarter, a reversal that directly affects refinancing timelines and transaction feasibility for office assets most dependent on capital markets support. The effective-lease-rate outperformance of $21.57 against a $19.14 asking rate offers a more optimistic read in the leasing data: where tenants are competing for quality space, they are paying up, and that competition is intensifying, as the 4.68% year-over-year gain in effective rates demonstrates.

Investment Implications: Office investment in 2026 rewards precision over breadth. The 750-basis-point year-over-year vacancy improvement and effective lease rate growth of 4.68% confirm that the office recovery is real but concentrated in prime assets. Investors who have waited for that clarity are approaching a more actionable window, particularly for well-located Class A and trophy assets where effective rents are already up 4.68% year over year, running ahead of broader market expectations.

Commodity and older office space remains a workout or conversion opportunity rather than a yield play; the 750-basis-point vacancy improvement nationally has been concentrated in the prime segment, and that divergence is structural, not cyclical. Investors with adaptive reuse strategies and distressed acquisition capabilities should continue monitoring markets where obsolete inventory is being priced for conversion rather than stabilization.

Industrial Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing

Industrial sale prices rose to $113.72 per square foot in April, up 4.00% from March's $109.35 and 7.21% above the $105.52 recorded in April 2025. Asking prices climbed to $126.90 per square foot, a 3.83% month-over-month gain and 11.51% year-over-year increase. The persistent gap between asking and closed prices, roughly $13 per square foot, reflects ongoing negotiation dynamics in which buyers retain meaningful leverage, particularly for older product and secondary-market assets where industrial vacancy remains elevated.

Cap Rates

Industrial cap rates compressed modestly in April, with sale cap rates reaching 7.11%, down 5 basis points from March's 7.16% and only 4 basis points above the 7.07% recorded in April 2025. Asking cap rates of 7.13%, down 7 basis points month over month and essentially unchanged year over year, are nearly aligned with closed transaction rates, a signal that the industrial market is approaching pricing equilibrium after the rerating of the past two years.

Vacancy

Industrial vacancy edged up to 20.70% in April, an 80-basis-point increase from March's 19.90%, though still meaningfully improved from the 23.50% recorded in April 2025. The year-over-year improvement of 280 basis points is consistent with the broader normalization thesis for industrial, even as the month-over-month uptick indicates the sector is still working through elevated inventory in certain industrial markets and product types.

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates

Industrial asking lease rates pulled back modestly to $13.17 per square foot in April, a 0.90% decline from March's $13.29, leaving the year-over-year change at just 0.15% above April 2025, or effectively flat. Effective lease rates of $13.22 per square foot, up 0.61% month over month and 1.66% year over year, continued to outpace asking rates. In a similar pattern to retail, tenants in well-positioned, supply-constrained industrial submarkets are accepting terms above the landlord's initial ask, even as the broad national rent environment remains subdued.

The Big Picture

Industrial is progressing through its normalization phase in a pattern that closely tracks the expectations major research firms established at the start of the year. The April Crexi data confirms that pricing is recovering at a measured pace, with sale prices up 7.21% year over year, while lease rate growth remains restrained, up just 0.15% on an asking basis, as the sector adjusts to shifting trade policies and slower economic growth. Peak industrial vacancy appears to be in the rearview mirror nationally, with annual asking rent growth strengthening to 2.1% year over year as of Q1, up from 1.1% at year-end 2025. The Crexi effective rate growth of 1.66% year over year sits within this range, suggesting the data captures a representative cross-section of a sector that is normalizing without fully recovering.

The sector's outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite geopolitical tension and rising oil prices. Q1 industrial leasing continued to rally, with 145.2 million square feet of leases executed and net absorption of 50.9 million square feet, exceptional strength for a historically quiet period of the calendar. The 80-basis-point month-over-month vacancy uptick in the April Crexi data reflects the reality that normalization is not a straight line: supply delivery continues in certain markets, and not all product types are absorbing at the same pace. Vacancy trends are increasingly market-specific, with regions that pulled back development most aggressively seeing faster tightening while secondary markets with legacy supply continue to work through their overhang. Taken together, the April data is tracking broadly in line with the full-year outlook, with measured pricing gains, near-flat rents, and cap rate stability pointing to a measured recovery rather than an accelerating one.

Investment Implications: With cap rates stable near 7.1% and pricing appreciating at 7.2% year over year, industrial continues to offer a compelling combination of stable yield and moderate appreciation for long-term holders. The opportunity set, however, is increasingly submarket-specific. Infill and last-mile assets in supply-constrained metros where effective rents are outpacing asking rates and vacancy remains structurally low command premium pricing but carry lower leasing risk. Onshoring and reshoring tailwinds identified by CBRE and JLL support a patient, buy-and-hold thesis for modern logistics facilities; speculative exposure to older bulk product in oversupplied markets carries materially more risk in the current environment.

Multifamily Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing

Multifamily sale prices softened in April, with the average sale price per square foot declining to $187.26 from March's $191.25, a 2.09% month-over-month decrease, and landing 0.89% below the $188.93 recorded in April 2025. Asking prices, by contrast, continued to rise, reaching $169.88 per square foot, up 3.65% from March and 5.47% above April 2025. The divergence between ask and close reflects the concession-heavy transaction environment in a multifamily market still absorbing the effects of elevated supply, where final pricing is frequently negotiated below original listing metrics.

Cap Rates

Sale cap rates compressed meaningfully in April, falling 24 basis points month over month to 5.93% from March's 6.17% and 36 basis points below the 6.29% recorded in April 2025. This compression signals improving investor confidence in completed multifamily transactions, with buyers willing to underwrite at lower yields for assets they believe are positioned for recovery as supply moderates. 

Asking cap rates of 7.18%, down 5 basis points month over month and essentially flat year over year, remain 125 basis points above where deals are actually closing, a spread that reflects the tension between seller ambitions and the discount buyers still require in a high-rate, elevated-vacancy environment, and one that is likely to narrow gradually as occupancy trends confirm the direction of multifamily rent recovery.

Vacancy

Multifamily vacancy improved sequentially in April, falling to 15.90% from March's 17.80%, a 190-basis-point month-over-month decline that signals meaningful seasonal and structural demand absorption heading into the stronger leasing months of Q2 and Q3. Year over year, however, vacancy has risen 270 basis points from the 13.20% recorded in April 2025, reflecting the cumulative impact of elevated deliveries from the 2023 through 2025 multifamily supply wave that is still working its way through the national market.

The Big Picture

The April multifamily data reflects a market at a genuine inflection point. Vacancy improved sharply on a sequential basis, sale cap rates compressed for closed deals, and asking prices continued to rise, yet year-over-year vacancy remains elevated and sale prices are marginally softer than a year ago.

This mixed picture reflects a sector in which operators are prioritizing occupancy over rent growth, deploying concessions and pricing flexibility on new leases to maintain occupancy while renewal rates, running at historically elevated levels, underpin blended rent performance. The 190-basis-point sequential vacancy improvement is an encouraging signal heading into peak leasing season, but the 270-basis-point year-over-year gap is a reminder that the market is still working through the consequences of the largest U.S. apartment supply wave since the 1980s.

National multifamily net absorption exceeded 130,000 units in the first quarter, the strongest Q1 performance of the past decade, as demand has remained more resilient than most forecasters anticipated. New supply deliveries of roughly 70,000 units in Q1 were the lowest in more than five years, providing meaningful breathing room for a sector still absorbing outsized volume from prior years. 

The key constraint on rent recovery is that most Q1 absorption was concentrated in newer properties, while seasoned stabilized assets, particularly in Florida and Texas, continued to post negative absorption, a geographic and vintage-level divergence that explains how national improvement and submarket stress can coexist. As deliveries continue to decline through 2026 and into 2027, Midwest and Northeast markets are expected to lead rent growth while Sun Belt markets normalize at a slower pace. The April Crexi data, with its sale cap rate compression and sequential vacancy improvement, is consistent with the early stages of that recovery taking hold.

Investment Implications: The entry window for acquiring below-peak multifamily assets is narrowing in better-positioned markets. The 190-basis-point sequential vacancy improvement and 36-basis-point cap rate compression signal that the demand recovery is gaining momentum, particularly in Midwest and Northeast markets where supply has been more constrained. Investors who have waited for confirmation of the demand recovery are getting it in the Q2 leasing data, but with that confirmation comes rising competition and tightening pricing for the best-positioned assets. Sun Belt markets, particularly in Florida and Texas, where seasoned stabilized assets continue to post negative absorption, face a longer timeline to recovery that extends into 2027. The absorption story is improving nationally, but stabilized asset performance in those markets remains under pressure, and the timeline to full recovery extends further into 2027 than initial 2026 outlooks anticipated.

Regional Breakdown: Median Cap Rates & Changes MoM by Top MSAs – April 2026

Disclaimer: This article's information is based on Crexi's internal marketplace data and additional external sources. While asking price in many ways reflects market conditions, variations in pricing are affected by changes in inventory, asset size, etc. Nothing contained on this website is intended to be construed as investing advice. Any reference to an investment's past or potential performance should not be construed as a recommendation or guarantee towards a specific outcome.

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