Crexi National Commercial Real Estate Report: November 2025

Key Takeaways

• Retail: Sale pricing led the pack at $292.17 PSF (+23.6% MoM, +33.6% YoY), and effective rents outpaced demands, signaling fewer concessions and strong demand in prime corridors. Vacancy ticked to 6.6% (+100 bps MoM) but remains 220 bps below last year, consistent with tight new supply and resilient daily-needs tenants.
• Office: Selective recovery persisted with $173.86 PSF on sales (−1.9% MoM, +13.0% YoY) and effective rents +6.8% YoY even as asks stayed flat, reflecting flight-to-quality. Vacancy reached 19.7% (+100 bps MoM) yet sits 220 bps under November 2024, indicating improved execution in better assets.
• Industrial: Normalization continued as sold pricing fell to $96.91 PSF (−8.0% MoM, −1.9% YoY) while asking PSF climbed to $122.45 (+0.7% MoM, +9.9% YoY), widening the bid-ask gap. Effective lease rates rose faster than asked (+10.2% YoY vs +1.2%), pointing to firmer deal terms even with for-sale vacancy at 26.8%.
• Multifamily: Pricing softened to $202.05 PSF (−1.1% MoM, −3.8% YoY) and sale cap rates moved to 6.47% (+6 bps MoM, +24 bps YoY) as concessions and deliveries weighed on execution. Listing vacancy registered 14.6%(+30 bps MoM, +90 bps YoY), while asks dipped 1.6% MoM but remained +3.5% YoY, consistent with late-year renter cooling.
• Big picture: Bifurcation deepened in November, with retail and top-tier offices showing firmer terms, industrial holding steady on executed leases, and apartments digesting record supply. With Q3 transactions rebounding and construction pipelines tapering into 2026, patient capital targeting quality locations and durable income is positioned to outperform.

Retail Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing: Average sale price per square foot rose to $292.17, up a sizeable 23.6% MoM and 33.6% YoY, signaling that buyers remained willing to pay for well-located retail even as deal scrutiny persists.  

Cap Rates: Closed-deal cap rates held at 6.38% (flat MoM) and were 12 bps lower YoY, consistent with competitive pricing for stabilized assets. Asking cap rates eased 6 bps MoM and 5 bps YoY to 6.58%, implying seller confidence despite macro uncertainty.  

Vacancy: Reported retail vacancy on Crexi listings ticked up 100 bps MoM to 6.6%, yet remained 220 bps below November 2024, an indicator that supply has become tight in many submarkets.  

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates: Asking rents increased to $19.25 PSF (+1.0% MoM, +2.3% YoY), while effective rents jumped to $22.57 PSF (+8.0% MoM, +12.1% YoY). The widening spread suggests stronger executed terms and fewer concessions for desirable space, particularly in high-traffic corridors.  

The Big Picture

Retail fundamentals remained strong headed into November and the holidays. Availability is still limited heading into 2026 as new construction costs hinder deliveries, with bidding intensity for well-located anchor boxes and Sun Belt space persisting. Market reports noted that retail demand improved off midyear lows in Q3, while year-to-date absorption was modestly negative, a reminder that store closures are still occurring even as leasing in well-located areas picks up. Recent coverage also highlights discounters and essentials-led chains quickly backfilling space, with national vacancy around the 5.50% range in November as retailers again took more space than they gave back.  

Promisingly, holiday indicators in late November strengthened the case for steady near-term performance. A record 202.9 million consumers shopped over the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period, Cyber Monday set a new online sales high of $14.25B, and Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1% year over year, signaling healthy retail traffic and value-seeking activity even as shoppers used buy-now pay-later (BNPL) more often.

In addition to holiday-specific metrics, October retail sales trends from the most recent Census report show growth holding in the low-to-mid single digits. A mix of resilient consumer spending, tight new supply, and selective expansion by value and grocery-anchored tenants aligns with our platform’s signals of stable pricing and improving retail outlook into the year’s end.

Investment Implications: Given constrained supply, effective rents outpacing asks, and vacancy near cycle lows, prioritize grocery-anchored, high-traffic open-air centers for durable cash flow and potential cap-rate compression. Seek yield premiums on older or secondary assets.

Office Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing: Average sale price per square foot was $173.86, down 1.9% MoM but up 13.0% YoY, a reversal from last year’s trough that aligns with more price discovery in high-quality assets.  

Cap Rates: Sale cap rates edged up 4 bps MoM to 7.36% and improved 26 bps YoY; meanwhile, asking cap rates rose 5 bps MoM to 7.15% and were 3 bps higher YoY, pointing to selective buyer pushback met by realistic seller pricing.  

Vacancy: Office vacancy on Crexi moved +100 bps MoM to 19.7%, yet sat 220 bps below November 2024, suggesting marketed inventory quality may be improving and that vacant-to-leased transitions accelerated over the year. 

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates: Asking rents held at $19.95 PSF (flat MoM; -0.2% YoY), while effective rents held at $20.75 PSF (flat MoM; +6.8% YoY). The year-over-year lift in effective rents indicates more stabilized concessions and firmer execution, especially in top-tier trophy assets.

The Big Picture

Office performance is shifting slightly after a stronger mid-year performance, given strong absorption and decreasing availability of Class A, amenity-rich assets. November’s report of slightly declining sale pricing and +2% vacancy indicate that we’re seeing a decrease in available assets with higher desirability, which have buoyed overall closed pricing and kept asking-to-effective rent gaps stable. 

Nationally, office has greatly improved with positive net absorption in Q3 and vacancy down 20 bps to 18.8%, the first year-over-year decline since early 2020, while leasing rose to 52.4 million sf. Recovery remains uneven but is spreading, with positive Class A absorption and improving gross activity, even as many buildings still need aggressive economics to compete.  

Capital and credit are also stabilizing at the margin. U.S. CRE transactions rebounded in Q3 with volumes up roughly 25% year over year, including a lift in office sales, while November CMBS updates showed the overall delinquency rate easing 20 bps to 7.26% after October’s rise, even as office remains the main pressure point. 

Conversely, reports highlighted a September spike in office late payments tied to a large NYC default. Job cuts and space utilization trends will also keep office recovery selective near term: ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private payrolls in November, and hybrid usage still is shedding second-tier space in favor of better-quality assets.

Investment Implications: Net-net, investors should expect two speeds: quality buildings in strong submarkets benefit from limited new supply and rising tour volume, while older assets lean on conversion paths, deeper TI packages, or discounted trades.

Industrial Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing: Average sale price per square foot was $96.91, -8.0% MoM and -1.9% YoY, reflecting more price sensitivity on lower-quality or oversupplied nodes even as asking values held up. Asking prices rose to $122.45 PSF (+0.7% MoM; +9.9% YoY), indicating seller conviction where tenant demand and logistics fundamentals remain intact.  

Cap Rates: Closed-deal cap rates increased 10 bps MoM to 7.18% and improved 5 bps YoY; asking cap rates ticked +2 bps MoM but were 11 bps lower YoY at 7.29%, consistent with a market that re-prices quarterly yet still finds depth for core distribution product.  

Vacancy: Industrial vacancy on Crexi’s for-sale listings rose +100 bps MoM to 26.8% and was +30 bps YoY, reflecting a still-normalizing pipeline in certain metros as the sector adjusts to oversupplied deliveries.

For Lease

Asking vs. Effective Lease Rates: Asking rents rose to $14.22 PSF (+0.35% MoM; +1.2% YoY), while effective rents climbed to $13.55 PSF(+0.82% MoM; +10.2% YoY). The widening gap suggests fewer free-rent periods and steadier tenant improvement packages on executed deals compared with a year ago. 

The Big Picture

Industrial was mostly unchanged as of mid-Q4 2025, underscoring a cooldown from the sector’s pandemic peak but continued structural strength in logistics demand. Over 146.2 million square feet of quarterly leasing occurred in Q3 2025 (the highest since 2023), with tenants mostly focused on newer product where available and build-to-suit still active for strategic locations.  

Usage metrics suggest we’re seeing demand normalization rather than a surge. Prologis’ IBI shows activity in the low-50s and warehouse utilization around 84–85% this fall, consistent with steady operations and selective expansions, while U.S. industrial vacancy clocked at 7.4% in Q3, the smallest quarterly increase since late 2022 and likely near its cyclical top. Looking ahead, recent models project near-flat net absorption in H2 2025 and a rebound to about 119.3 msf for full-year 2026, slower than the boom years but supportive of incremental rent growth as new supply fades and occupiers continue upgrading into newer stock.  

Complementing these fundamentals, capital-markets data show renewed investor appetite late in Q3, with a 23.7% QoQ and 25.1% YoY jump in U.S. CRE dollar volume to $150.6B, with industrial among sectors posting annual gains. 

Investment Implications: Watch for a 2026 absorption pickup concentrated in modern, well-located logistics facilities: headline sale quotes will stay strong while sold pricing values soften; posted lease rates may stay flatter for longer, but show modest annual rent gains in the coming year

Multifamily Market Analysis

For Sale

Pricing: Average sale price per square foot was $202.05, down 1.1% MoM and 3.8% YoY, consistent with ongoing underwriting discipline amid elevated operating expenses. Asking prices were $172.52 PSF, -1.6% MoM but +3.5% YoY, reflecting modest seller optimism as leasing metrics stabilize.  

Cap Rates: Sale cap rates rose 6 bps MoM to 6.47% and were 24 bps higher YoY; asking cap rates increased 1 bp MoM and 22 bps YoY to 7.26%, mirroring the higher-for-longer debt backdrop earlier in 2025 and improved clarity on risk pricing into year-end.  

Vacancy: Reported vacancy on Crexi listings was 14.6%, +30 bps MoM and +90 bps YoY. While still elevated versus 2021–2022, the pace of increase has slowed as supply pipelines taper. 

The Big Picture

National renter conditions softened into November, aligning with seasonal patterns and the supply overhang that has defined 2025. The national median rent fell 1.0% month over month and 1.1% year over year, while its vacancy index hit 7.2%, a series high; average list-to-lease time rose to 36 days, up two days from last year. 

 In addition to that slowdown, advertised asking rents fell by $8 in November, with year-over-year growth easing to 0.2%, and media recaps pegged stabilized occupancy near 94.7% despite softer pricing.  Concessions also became more common this fall: Zillow’s most recent rent report shows nearly 39% of U.S. listings offered some form of incentive, with several metros above 50%, a clear sign of competitive lease-ups where new deliveries remain heavy.  

Turning our attention to the supply pipeline and demand, roughly 637,100 market-rate units absorbed in the year ending Q3 2025, still elevated by historical standards though momentum eased from mid-year peaks.  Vacancy increased slightly month-over-month on for-sale listings on Crexi, with ~92,000 units completed in the same period.

Yet in the context of the broader housing backdrop: early December mortgage quotes drifted near 6.2% on the 30-year fixed, yet will likely keep many households renting longer even as ownership affordability improves at the margin. Accordingly, investment volume is up with 4.74% pricing gains, suggesting capital is re-engaging especially as cost of capital becomes more affordable.

Investment Implications: Near term, pricing looks choppy and vacancy slightly higher, with late-2025 deliveries and cooling renter demand lifting concessions and nudging cap rates upward: buyers with patient capital can capture improving rent growth within a tighter leasing landscape.

Regional Breakdown: Median Cap Rates & Changes MoM by Top MSAs – November 2025

Disclaimer: This article's information is based on Crexi's internal marketplace data and additional external sources. While asking price in many ways reflects market conditions, variations in pricing are affected by changes in inventory, asset size, etc. Nothing contained on this website is intended to be construed as investing advice. Any reference to an investment's past or potential performance should not be construed as a recommendation or guarantee towards a specific outcome.

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